Politics and Elections

New 2020 Iowa Poll: Biden Leads, Tight Race for Second Place

Author: Vibor Cipan Published on: June 9, 2019, and filed under Politics and elections
  • Biden keeps his first place, support declining
  • Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg all within statistical error
  • Beto O'Rourke's numbers slump
2020 Iowa Poll - Democrats

A new 2020 Iowa Poll study sees Biden leading the pack, with Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg tied for the second place. O'Rourke loses support. Harris at 7%.

Introduction – 2020 Iowa Poll

The new 2020 Iowa Poll was conducted from June 2 until June 5, 2019. This poll was ordered by The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines.

The poll collected 600 phone interviews with registered voters in Iowa who were likely voters. The error margin is +/- 4.7% for in-person attendees and +/-7.6% for virtual participants.

While the 2020 February caucus is still relatively far in the future, it is interesting to analyze available polls.

More than 20 Democrats are running for the 2020 US Presidential Elections, but only a handful of them are with realistic chances.

Biden leads, but his numbers are falling

The latest poll shows the former VP, Joe Biden, as the first choice for 24% of surveyed voters. However, Biden’s support is decreasing. In December, long before he officially announced that he is running, around 33% of Iowa voters said they would support him.

Former Vice President Joe Biden's kickoff rally for his 2020 Presidential campaign. A photo by Michael Stokes.
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s kickoff rally for his 2020 Presidential campaign. A photo by Michael Stokes.

According to the poll, 34% of (in-person) voters see Biden as “very favorable” – second only to Elizabeth Warren, with 38% of (in-person) voters seeing the US senator from Massachusetts as a “very favorable” candidate.

Additionally, Biden’s unfavorability ratings are up 9 pp.

Tight race for the second place

The second place is a tight race – the differences between all three candidates are well within statistical errors.

Sanders hits the floor

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, presidential hopeful, running once again after losing to Hilary Clinton, leads the pack with 16% support. Senator Elizabeth Warren is at 15%, while the South Bend, Indiana, Mayor – Pete Buttigieg – is at 14% support.

The problem with Sanders is that he also has one of the highest unfavorability numbers. While well-known and recognized in the field, Sanders doesn’t seem to gather broader support.

Warren is experiencing robust growth

Elizabeth Warren, however, is experiencing robust growth momentum. She can also brag about her favorability numbers. With 71% of respondents seeing Warren favorably (and only 17% viewing her unfavorably), she has a better favorability ratio than Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg.

It seems that her continued presence in Iowa and her appearances in public are giving results. Warren is actively coming up with her detailed policy proposals, which has caught some attention among Democrat voters.

Pete Buttigieg is on the rise, too

Another candidate with a good growth momentum is South Bend, In. Mayor Pete Buttigieg. In the March survey, Buttigieg recorded just 1%; the latest Iowa poll now has him at a robust 14%.

Beto O’Rourke’s enthusiasm falls

While Mayor Buttigieg records a sharp increase in his numbers, Beto O’Rourke, former Texas Congressman, sees his number slump. With an 80% drop, only 2% of respondents in the 2020 Iowa Poll, see O’Rourke as their first choice. The percentage of those seeing him as a second choice? Only 4%. The 2% figure puts him in the same position as Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.

Kamala Harris, a Senator from California, appears in the fourth position with support from 7% of respondents.

All other candidates scored 1% or less.

There is no table associated with this shortcode.

The full Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll study can be found and read here.

Looking for 2019 EU election results in Croatia? Read on!

Author avatar


Vibor Cipan

With over 15 years of professional work in technology, Vibor Cipan is a recognized leader in this field. His contributions at Microsoft, where he earned the prestigious MVP title, set the stage for his roles as CEO and Co-Founder of UX Passion, and later on, Point Jupiter, a data-informed agency. There, he led teams that shaped services for over 400 million users globally. His work spans UX design and software development, driving significant contributions in both fields.

Currently immersed in the generative AI sector, Cipan is taking part in projects revolutionizing software development and user engagement. His expertise extends into data viz, analytics and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), where he actively develops proofs of concept and explores AI's role in shaping societal dynamics and national security.

An accomplished author and speaker, Vibor continues to share his insights at international venues, advocating for innovation and a richer understanding of technology's impact on society.

You can follow him on LinkedIn or Twitter/X as @viborc.

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