Sunday, September 22
Davor Bernardić, SDP party leader, surrounded by supporters, celebrating good election results for social-democrats.

HDZ vs. SDP: 2019 EU Election Results in Croatia Rundown

A surprisingly good result for SDP. HDZ falls short of five predicted seats.
0
314

Key information

  • HDZ wins four seats with 22.72% of votes
  • SDP wins four seats with 18.71%
  • First exit polls suggested five for HDZ and three for SDP
  • Highest % of votes HDZ won in a municipality is 67.18%, SDP at 47.70%
  • Lowest % of votes HDZ won in a municipality is 0.23%, SDP at 0.17%

Introduction – HDZ vs. SDP expectations

Let's check out how the two main parties of Croatia fared in the 2019 EU elections. It's time for HDZ vs. SDP 2019 EU election results rundown.

HDZ (Croatian democratic union/Hrvatska demokratska zajednica) won the majority of the popular vote at the EU with 244,076 votes (22.72%). That was enough for four seats.

Was it enough?

Hardly. HDZ communicated their intention and goal of winning five seats at the EU parliament publicly. More courageous members of the party were seen claiming they could get as much as six seats.

At the same time, surprisingly, SDP (Social-democratic party/Socijaldemokratska partija), the main opposition party, center-left won the same number of seats with 200,976 votes (18.71%).

Was that enough?

Yes. And it was enthusiastically received by party's president Davor Bernardić. After the results came in, Bernardić took to a stage and started chanting "SDP! SDP!" with supporters. A sharp contrast – given the political turmoil and general atmosphere in SDP.

Davor Bernardić, SDP party leader, surrounded by supporters, celebrating good election results for social-democrats. HDZ vs. SDP rundown.

Davor Bernardić, SDP party leader, surrounded by supporters, celebrating good election results for social-democrats. HDZ vs. SDP rundown.

Opinion polls from 2014 EU elections until 2019 EU elections in Croatia

Polls missed most of these results. Media was covering visits of Angela Merkel (campaigning, at least unofficially for HDZ) and Frans Timmermans (doing the same for SDP) and claiming that HDZ could win five seats with SDP grabbing three. Even the first exit polls suggested HDZ winning five and SDP winning three seats.

DatePollsterHDZSDPŽZAmCMOSTNHRSov.KolakušićPetir
25 May 20142014 results41.429.90.5N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
23 Nov 20182x1 komunikacije25.518.57.813.17.87.61.0----
27 Dec 20182x1 komunikacije28.422.812.010.66.66.61.0----
18 Jan 2019IPSOS20.110.610.812.57.58.9------
1 Feb 20192x1 komunikacije26.422.010.514.06.88.62.2----
27 Feb 2019IPSOS29.615.79.47.24.9--------
28 Feb 20192x1 komunikacije26.320.09.914.18.77.51.7----
6 Mar 2019Promocija plus27.616.79.68.26.54.22.9----
21 Mar 2019Promocija plus27.016.49.38.46.44.32.8----
23 Mar 20192x1 komunikacije26.620.810.514.48.86.21.5----
26 Mar 2019IPSOS29.518.99.45.66.1--------
7 Apr 2019Promocija plus26.916.58.38.26.04.54.0----
21 Apr 2019Promocija plus25.115.77.77.66.24.13.94.64.6
27 Apr 2019IPSOS26.917.48.77.16.02.82.72.82.7
29 Apr 2019Oraclum36.120.59.76.07.42.92.43.2-
30 Apr 20192x1 komunikacije24.021.09.87.96.85.02.73.22.5
8 May 2019Promocija plus26.016.27.97.05.63.43.14.34.4
20 May 2019Promocija plus24.516.47.46.96.73.64.44.74.8
23 May 20192x1 komunikacije24.021.211.05.97.05.34.84.84.0
24 May 2019Oraclum34.621.111.15.77.32.42.23.3--
24 May 2019IPSOS28.220.17.46.26.14.64.25.1--
26 May 20192019 election results22.7218.715.665.194.674.378.527.894.40

HDZ vs. SDP – election rundown

Full results of the EU elections in Croatia are now available, and they show a compelling political portrait of the Croatian nation. With all the votes counted and seats allocated, let's examine how HDZ and SDP fared concerning each other.

Municipalities with least votes for HDZ (%)

MunicipalityHDZ% HDZSDP% SDPWinnerCounty
Negoslavci10.2330.7SDSSVukovar-Srijem
Grožnjan10.57179.66Amst. CoalitionIstria
Borovo70.61342.95SDSSVukovar-Srijem
Ervenik30.7420.49SDSSŠibenik-Knin
Markušica71.13121.93SDSSVukovar-Srijem

Most municipalities where HDZ has worst results are either municipalities with sizeable Serb minority or in Istria county.

However, it is interesting to notice that even though HDZ recorded low numbers, SDP was not strong in those areas, as well. SDSS (Independent Democratic Serb Party) won four out of five of them. Amsterdam Coalition took the remaining fifth spot – in Istria.

Municipalities with most votes for HDZ (%)

MunicipalityHDZ% HDZSDP% SDPCounty
Unešić38967.1810.17Šibenik-Knin
Lokvičići13765.2473.33Split-Dalmatia
Lećevica8964.4921.45Split-Dalmatia
Cetingrad21263.28164.78Karlovac
Ljubeščica38262.32548.81Varaždin

HDZ can brag with winning the 67.18% of votes in Unešić – a percentage to which SDP was not able to come even close in its strongholds. All top 5 places for HDZ are above 60% mark.

Unsurprisingly, SDP recorded low numbers in those municipalities. From 0.17% in Unešić to 8.81% in Ljubeščica.

Municipalities with least votes for SDP (%)

MunicipalitySDP% SDPHDZ% HDZWinnerCounty
Unešić10.1738967.18HDZŠibenik-Knin
Ervenik20.4930.74SDSSŠibenik-Knin
Negoslavci30.710.23SDSSVukovar-Srijem
Cista Provo60.7740852.31HDZSplit-Dalmatia
Zmijavci71.1922137.65HDZSplit-Dalmatia

Expectedly, SDP is weak in more rural and conservative parts of Croatia. HDZ beats it in three of the five municipalities where SDP recorded the lowest percentage of votes. The remaining two are from the places with a sizeable Serb minority with SDSS winning in both.

Municipalities with most votes for SDP (%)

MunicipalitySDP% SDPHDZ% HDZCounty
Kalnik19747.709923.97Koprivnica-Križevci
Plaški22542.6910820.49Karlovac
Supetar45438.0228123.53Split-Dalmatia
Petrijanec49137.4819014.50Varaždin
Nova Gradiška1,19135.8289827.01Brod-Posavina

SDP's highest percentage share is shy of 50%, and it is at 47.70% – almost 20 pp below HDZ's score. All the top five places are between 47.70% and 35.82% – meaning that SDP's domination in those areas is weaker than the command enjoyed by HDZ in its strongholds.

HDZ 2019 EU election results – mapped

HDZ's 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes

HDZ's 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes

SDP 2019 EU election results – mapped

SDP's 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes

SDP's 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes

Side-by-side comparison of HDZ vs. SDP election results

Interactively explore the map of Croatia. Compare the share of votes won by HDZ and SDP. Just drag the slider left or right and have fun.

HDZ's 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votesSDP's 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes

Relative strenght of HDZ vs. SDP on the same map

HDZ vs. SDP's 2019 EU election results mapped, relative percentage of votes

HDZ vs. SDP's 2019 EU election results mapped, relative percentage of votes

Leave a reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.