HDZ vs. SDP: 2019 EU Election Results in Croatia Rundown

Key information

HDZ wins four seats with 22.72% of votes
SDP wins four seats with 18.71%
First exit polls suggested five for HDZ and three for SDP
Highest % of votes HDZ won in a municipality is 67.18%, SDP at 47.70%
Lowest % of votes HDZ won in a municipality is 0.23%, SDP at 0.17%

Introduction – HDZ vs. SDP expectations

Let's check out how the two main parties of Croatia fared in the 2019 EU elections. It's time for HDZ vs. SDP 2019 EU election results rundown.

HDZ (Croatian democratic union/Hrvatska demokratska zajednica) won the majority of the popular vote at the EU with 244,076 votes (22.72%). That was enough for four seats.

Was it enough?

Hardly. HDZ communicated their intention and goal of winning five seats at the EU parliament publicly. More courageous members of the party were seen claiming they could get as much as six seats.

At the same time, surprisingly, SDP (Social-democratic party/Socijaldemokratska partija), the main opposition party, center-left won the same number of seats with 200,976 votes (18.71%).

Was that enough?

Yes. And it was enthusiastically received by party's president Davor Bernardić. After the results came in, Bernardić took to a stage and started chanting "SDP! SDP!" with supporters. A sharp contrast – given the political turmoil and general atmosphere in SDP.

Davor Bernardić, SDP party leader, surrounded by supporters, celebrating good election results for social-democrats. HDZ vs. SDP rundown.

Opinion polls from 2014 EU elections until 2019 EU elections in Croatia

Polls missed most of these results. Media was covering visits of Angela Merkel (campaigning, at least unofficially for HDZ) and Frans Timmermans (doing the same for SDP) and claiming that HDZ could win five seats with SDP grabbing three. Even the first exit polls suggested HDZ winning five and SDP winning three seats.

Date	Pollster	HDZ	SDP	ŽZ	AmC	MOST	NHR	Sov.	Kolakušić	Petir
25 May 2014	2014 results	41.4	29.9	0.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
23 Nov 2018	2x1 komunikacije	25.5	18.5	7.8	13.1	7.8	7.6	1.0	--	--
27 Dec 2018	2x1 komunikacije	28.4	22.8	12.0	10.6	6.6	6.6	1.0	--	--
18 Jan 2019	IPSOS	20.1	10.6	10.8	12.5	7.5	8.9	--	--	--
1 Feb 2019	2x1 komunikacije	26.4	22.0	10.5	14.0	6.8	8.6	2.2	--	--
27 Feb 2019	IPSOS	29.6	15.7	9.4	7.2	4.9	--	--	--	--
28 Feb 2019	2x1 komunikacije	26.3	20.0	9.9	14.1	8.7	7.5	1.7	--	--
6 Mar 2019	Promocija plus	27.6	16.7	9.6	8.2	6.5	4.2	2.9	--	--
21 Mar 2019	Promocija plus	27.0	16.4	9.3	8.4	6.4	4.3	2.8	--	--
23 Mar 2019	2x1 komunikacije	26.6	20.8	10.5	14.4	8.8	6.2	1.5	--	--
26 Mar 2019	IPSOS	29.5	18.9	9.4	5.6	6.1	--	--	--	--
7 Apr 2019	Promocija plus	26.9	16.5	8.3	8.2	6.0	4.5	4.0	--	--
21 Apr 2019	Promocija plus	25.1	15.7	7.7	7.6	6.2	4.1	3.9	4.6	4.6
27 Apr 2019	IPSOS	26.9	17.4	8.7	7.1	6.0	2.8	2.7	2.8	2.7
29 Apr 2019	Oraclum	36.1	20.5	9.7	6.0	7.4	2.9	2.4	3.2	-
30 Apr 2019	2x1 komunikacije	24.0	21.0	9.8	7.9	6.8	5.0	2.7	3.2	2.5
8 May 2019	Promocija plus	26.0	16.2	7.9	7.0	5.6	3.4	3.1	4.3	4.4
20 May 2019	Promocija plus	24.5	16.4	7.4	6.9	6.7	3.6	4.4	4.7	4.8
23 May 2019	2x1 komunikacije	24.0	21.2	11.0	5.9	7.0	5.3	4.8	4.8	4.0
24 May 2019	Oraclum	34.6	21.1	11.1	5.7	7.3	2.4	2.2	3.3	--
24 May 2019	IPSOS	28.2	20.1	7.4	6.2	6.1	4.6	4.2	5.1	--
26 May 2019	2019 election results	22.72	18.71	5.66	5.19	4.67	4.37	8.52	7.89	4.40

HDZ vs. SDP – election rundown

Full results of the EU elections in Croatia are now available, and they show a compelling political portrait of the Croatian nation. With all the votes counted and seats allocated, let's examine how HDZ and SDP fared concerning each other.

Municipalities with least votes for HDZ (%)

Municipality	HDZ	% HDZ	SDP	% SDP	Winner	County
Negoslavci	1	0.23	3	0.7	SDSS	Vukovar-Srijem
Grožnjan	1	0.57	17	9.66	Amst. Coalition	Istria
Borovo	7	0.61	34	2.95	SDSS	Vukovar-Srijem
Ervenik	3	0.74	2	0.49	SDSS	Šibenik-Knin
Markušica	7	1.13	12	1.93	SDSS	Vukovar-Srijem

Most municipalities where HDZ has worst results are either municipalities with sizeable Serb minority or in Istria county.

However, it is interesting to notice that even though HDZ recorded low numbers, SDP was not strong in those areas, as well. SDSS (Independent Democratic Serb Party) won four out of five of them. Amsterdam Coalition took the remaining fifth spot – in Istria.

Municipalities with most votes for HDZ (%)

Municipality	HDZ	% HDZ	SDP	% SDP	County
Unešić	389	67.18	1	0.17	Šibenik-Knin
Lokvičići	137	65.24	7	3.33	Split-Dalmatia
Lećevica	89	64.49	2	1.45	Split-Dalmatia
Cetingrad	212	63.28	16	4.78	Karlovac
Ljubeščica	382	62.32	54	8.81	Varaždin

HDZ can brag with winning the 67.18% of votes in Unešić – a percentage to which SDP was not able to come even close in its strongholds. All top 5 places for HDZ are above 60% mark.

Unsurprisingly, SDP recorded low numbers in those municipalities. From 0.17% in Unešić to 8.81% in Ljubeščica.

Municipalities with least votes for SDP (%)

Municipality	SDP	% SDP	HDZ	% HDZ	Winner	County
Unešić	1	0.17	389	67.18	HDZ	Šibenik-Knin
Ervenik	2	0.49	3	0.74	SDSS	Šibenik-Knin
Negoslavci	3	0.7	1	0.23	SDSS	Vukovar-Srijem
Cista Provo	6	0.77	408	52.31	HDZ	Split-Dalmatia
Zmijavci	7	1.19	221	37.65	HDZ	Split-Dalmatia

Expectedly, SDP is weak in more rural and conservative parts of Croatia. HDZ beats it in three of the five municipalities where SDP recorded the lowest percentage of votes. The remaining two are from the places with a sizeable Serb minority with SDSS winning in both.

Municipalities with most votes for SDP (%)

Municipality	SDP	% SDP	HDZ	% HDZ	County
Kalnik	197	47.70	99	23.97	Koprivnica-Križevci
Plaški	225	42.69	108	20.49	Karlovac
Supetar	454	38.02	281	23.53	Split-Dalmatia
Petrijanec	491	37.48	190	14.50	Varaždin
Nova Gradiška	1,191	35.82	898	27.01	Brod-Posavina

SDP's highest percentage share is shy of 50%, and it is at 47.70% – almost 20 pp below HDZ's score. All the top five places are between 47.70% and 35.82% – meaning that SDP's domination in those areas is weaker than the command enjoyed by HDZ in its strongholds.