A surprisingly good result for SDP. HDZ falls short of five predicted seats.
Introduction – HDZ vs. SDP expectations
Let’s check out how the two main parties of Croatia fared in the 2019 EU elections. It’s time for HDZ vs. SDP 2019 EU election results rundown.
HDZ (Croatian democratic union/Hrvatska demokratska zajednica) won most of the popular vote at the EU with 244,076 votes (22.72%). That was enough for four seats.
Was it enough?
Hardly. HDZ communicated its intention and goal of publicly winning five seats in the EU parliament. More courageous party members were seen claiming they could get as many as six seats.
Simultaneously, surprisingly, SDP (Social-democratic party/Socijaldemokratska partija), the main opposition party, center-left, won the same number of seats with 200,976 votes (18.71%).
Was that enough?
Yes. And it was enthusiastically received by the party’s president Davor Bernardić. After the results came in, Bernardić took to a stage and started chanting “SDP! SDP!” with supporters. A sharp contrast – given the political turmoil and general atmosphere in SDP.
Opinion polls from the 2014 EU elections until the 2019 EU elections in Croatia
Polls missed most of these results. The media was covering visits of Angela Merkel (campaigning, at least unofficially for HDZ) and Frans Timmermans (doing the same for SDP) and claiming that HDZ could win five seats, with SDP grabbing three. Even the first exit polls suggested HDZ winning five and SDP winning three seats.
| Pollster | Margin of error | Date | Škoro | Kolakušić | Pernar | Orešković | Kovač | Simonić | Orepić | Đapić | Karabatić | Juričan - Bandić | Panenić | Peović | Bandić | Esih | Sinčić | Petrov | Vučetić | Jurišić | Mesić | Mrak- Taritaš | Others | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promocija plus | 2.77 | 11/11/2019 | 16.7 | 14 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1 | 6.1 | ||||||||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 3 | 10/28/2019 | 21 | 5.9 | 13.2 | |||||||||||||||||||
| IPSOS PULS | 3.3 | 10/26/2019 | 18.3 | 5.1 | 4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 3 | 10/20/2019 | 19.1 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 6.7 | ||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 3 | 10/7/2019 | 19.1 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 2 | 6.2 | |||||||||||
| IPSOS PULS | 3.3 | 9/25/2019 | 20.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2 | 4.4 | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 4 | 9/21/2019 | 18.2 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 7.1 | ||||||||||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 4 | 9/20/2019 | 17.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 4 | 9/9/2019 | 19.2 | 9.3 | 2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4.6 | ||||||||||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 2 | 8/24/2019 | 20.9 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 15.2 | ||||||||||||||
| IPSOS PULS | 3.3 | 8/23/2019 | 18 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 3 | 8/5/2019 | 18.5 | 12 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2 | 7.6 | |||||||||||||
| IPSOS PULS | 2 | 7/26/2019 | 19.9 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 1 | 7/15/2019 | 20.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 17 | |||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 1 | 7/8/2019 | 17.8 | 13.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||
| IPSOS PULS | 1 | 6/28/2019 | 19.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 2 | 6/18/2019 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 21.6 | |||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 3 | 6/10/2019 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 4 | 5/21/2019 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 6 | 4 | 3.7 | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 4 | 5/9/2019 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 3 | 4/22/2019 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 2 | 4/8/2019 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 2 | 3/22/2019 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 4 | 1.9 | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 3 | 3/7/2019 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 3 | 2/7/2019 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 4 | 1/10/2019 | 12 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 4 | 12/7/2018 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 2 | 4/25/2018 | 1.4 | 15.7 | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 1 | 4/25/2018 | 12.2 | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Promocija plus | 2 | 2/3/2018 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| IPSOS PULS | 2 | 1/18/2018 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 6 |
HDZ vs. SDP – election rundown
Full results of the EU elections in Croatia are now available, showing a compelling political portrait of the Croatian nation. With all the votes counted and seats allocated, let’s examine how HDZ and SDP fared concerning each other.
Municipalities with the least votes for HDZ (%)
| Pollster | Date | Bandić | Esih | Sinčić | Petrov | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promocija plus | 11/11/2019 | 6.1 | ||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 10/28/2019 | 13.2 | ||||
| IPSOS PULS | 10/26/2019 | 4.1 | ||||
| Promocija plus | 10/20/2019 | 6.7 | ||||
| Promocija plus | 10/7/2019 | 6.2 | ||||
| IPSOS PULS | 9/25/2019 | 2.2 | ||||
| Promocija plus | 9/21/2019 | 7.1 | ||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 9/20/2019 | 14.8 | ||||
| Promocija plus | 9/9/2019 | 4.6 | ||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 8/24/2019 | 15.2 | ||||
| IPSOS PULS | 8/23/2019 | 4.7 | ||||
| Promocija plus | 8/5/2019 | 7.6 | ||||
| IPSOS PULS | 7/26/2019 | 4.9 | ||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 7/15/2019 | 17 | ||||
| Promocija plus | 7/8/2019 | 7.2 | ||||
| IPSOS PULS | 6/28/2019 | |||||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 6/18/2019 | 0.8 | 21.6 | |||
| Promocija plus | 6/10/2019 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 10.9 | ||
| Promocija plus | 5/21/2019 | 6 | 9.2 | |||
| Promocija plus | 5/9/2019 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 8.4 |
| Promocija plus | 4/22/2019 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 8.9 |
| Promocija plus | 4/8/2019 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 5.9 | |
| Promocija plus | 3/22/2019 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 4 | 5.3 | |
| Promocija plus | 3/7/2019 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | ||
| Promocija plus | 2/7/2019 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| Promocija plus | 1/10/2019 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | |
| Promocija plus | 12/7/2018 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 5.3 | ||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 4/25/2018 | 1.4 | 15.7 | 11.7 | ||
| 2x1 komunikacije | 4/25/2018 | 12.2 | 11.4 | |||
| Promocija plus | 2/3/2018 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 10.1 | ||
| IPSOS PULS | 1/18/2018 | 15 | 12 | 6 |
Most municipalities where HDZ has the worst results are municipalities with sizeable Serb minority or in Istria county.
However, it is interesting to notice that even though HDZ recorded low numbers, SDP was not strong in those areas. SDSS (Independent Democratic Serb Party) won four out of five. Amsterdam Coalition took the remaining fifth spot – in Istria.
Municipalities with the most votes for HDZ (%)
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HDZ can brag about winning the 67.18% of votes in Unešić – a percentage SDP could not even close in its strongholds. All top 5 places for HDZ are above the 60% mark.
Unsurprisingly, SDP recorded low numbers in those municipalities. From 0.17% in Unešić to 8.81% in Ljubeščica.
Municipalities with the least votes for SDP (%)
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Expectedly, SDP is weak in more rural and conservative parts of Croatia. HDZ beats it in three of the five municipalities where SDP recorded the lowest percentage of votes. The remaining two are from places with a sizeable Serb minority, with SDSS winning in both.
Municipalities with the most votes for SDP (%)
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SDP’s highest percentage share is shy of 50%, which is at 47.70% – almost 20 pp below HDZ’s score. All the top five places are between 47.70% and 35.82% – meaning that SDP’s domination in those areas is weaker than the command enjoyed by HDZ in its strongholds.
HDZ 2019 EU election results – mapped
SDP 2019 EU election results – mapped
Side-by-side comparison of HDZ vs. SDP election results
Interactively explore the map of Croatia. Compare the share of votes won by HDZ and SDP. Just drag the slider left or right and have fun.
[twenty20 img1=”170″ img2=”171″ offset=”0.5″ before=”HDZ” after=”SDP”]
The relative strength of HDZ vs. SDP on the same map
