Politics and Elections

HDZ vs. SDP: 2019 EU Election Results in Croatia Rundown

By: Vibor Cipan Published on: June 8, 2019, and filed under Politics and elections Tagged by:
  • HDZ wins four seats with 22.72% of votes
  • SDP wins four seats with 18.71%
  • First exit polls suggested five for HDZ, and three for SDP
Davor Bernardić, SDP party leader, surrounded by supporters, celebrating good election results for social-democrats. HDZ vs. SDP rundown. A surprisingly good result for SDP. HDZ falls short of five predicted seats.

With all the votes from the 2019 EU elections in Croatia counted, it's time to analyze how the two major parties performed. It's HDZ vs. SDP rundown time.

onwIntroduction – HDZ vs. SDP expectations

Let’s check out how the two main parties of Croatia fared in the 2019 EU elections. It’s time for HDZ vs. SDP 2019 EU election results rundown.

HDZ (Croatian democratic union/Hrvatska demokratska zajednica) won most of the popular vote at the EU with 244,076 votes (22.72%). That was enough for four seats.

Was it enough?

Hardly. HDZ communicated their intention and goal of winning five seats at the EU parliament publicly. More courageous members of the party were seen claiming they could get as much as six seats.

Simultaneously, surprisingly, SDP (Social-democratic party/Socijaldemokratska partija), the main opposition party, center-left, won the same number of seats with 200,976 votes (18.71%).

Was that enough?

Yes. And it was enthusiastically received by party’s president Davor Bernardić. After the results came in, Bernardić took to a stage and started chanting “SDP! SDP!” with supporters. A sharp contrast – given the political turmoil and general atmosphere in SDP.

Davor Bernardić, SDP party leader, surrounded by supporters, celebrating good election results for social-democrats. HDZ vs. SDP rundown.
Davor Bernardić, SDP party leader, surrounded by supporters, celebrating good election results for social-democrats. HDZ vs. SDP rundown.

Opinion polls from the 2014 EU elections until the 2019 EU elections in Croatia

Polls missed most of these results. Media was covering visits of Angela Merkel (campaigning, at least unofficially for HDZ) and Frans Timmermans (doing the same for SDP) and claiming that HDZ could win five seats with SDP grabbing three. Even the first exit polls suggested HDZ winning five and SDP winning three seats.

PollsterMargin of errorDateŠkoroKolakušićPernarOreškovićKovačSimonićOrepićĐapićKarabatićJuričan - BandićPanenićPeovićBandićEsihSinčićPetrovVučetićJurišićMesićMrak- TaritašOthersDon't know
Promocija plus2.7711/11/201916.7141.32.52.60.80.70.50.50.316.1
2x1 komunikacije310/28/2019215.913.2
IPSOS PULS3.310/26/201918.35.142.91.74.64.1
Promocija plus310/20/201919.17.11.92.630.610.61.96.7
Promocija plus310/7/201919.16.41.61.93.30.711.90.626.2
IPSOS PULS3.39/25/201920.26.23.73.324.42.2
Promocija plus49/21/201918.28.62.72.63.21.30.50.51.97.1
2x1 komunikacije49/20/201917.54.61.34.214.8
Promocija plus49/9/201919.29.322.32.61.50.70.71.54.6
2x1 komunikacije28/24/201920.97.42.50.91.20.30.115.2
IPSOS PULS3.38/23/2019186.43.93.44.44.7
Promocija plus38/5/201918.51231.40.60.50.927.6
IPSOS PULS27/26/201919.97.14.57.44.9
2x1 komunikacije17/15/201920.96.22.31.10.60.317
Promocija plus17/8/201917.813.92.81.52.12.47.2
IPSOS PULS16/28/201919.56.43.12.8
2x1 komunikacije26/18/201910.310.20.72.60.80.221.6
Promocija plus36/10/201913.813.11.93.33.310.9
Promocija plus45/21/20199.46.7643.79.2
Promocija plus45/9/20199.93.52.87.53.23.78.4
Promocija plus34/22/20194.99.53.53.35.23.72.18.9
Promocija plus24/8/201910.74.45.74.23.35.9
Promocija plus23/22/20195.29.23.96.341.95.3
Promocija plus33/7/201912.54.24.94.40.9
Promocija plus32/7/201912.34.53.94.54.21.24.4
Promocija plus41/10/2019124.54.17.96.21.7
Promocija plus412/7/201811.24.28.95.3
2x1 komunikacije24/25/20181.415.711.7
2x1 komunikacije14/25/201812.211.4
Promocija plus22/3/201811.96.65.910.1
IPSOS PULS21/18/2018151256

HDZ vs. SDP – election rundown

Full results of the EU elections in Croatia are now available, and they show a compelling political portrait of the Croatian nation. With all the votes counted and seats allocated, let’s examine how HDZ and SDP fared concerning each other.

Municipalities with least votes for HDZ (%)

PollsterDateBandićEsihSinčićPetrovDon't know
Promocija plus11/11/20196.1
2x1 komunikacije10/28/201913.2
IPSOS PULS10/26/20194.1
Promocija plus10/20/20196.7
Promocija plus10/7/20196.2
IPSOS PULS9/25/20192.2
Promocija plus9/21/20197.1
2x1 komunikacije9/20/201914.8
Promocija plus9/9/20194.6
2x1 komunikacije8/24/201915.2
IPSOS PULS8/23/20194.7
Promocija plus8/5/20197.6
IPSOS PULS7/26/20194.9
2x1 komunikacije7/15/201917
Promocija plus7/8/20197.2
IPSOS PULS6/28/2019
2x1 komunikacije6/18/20190.821.6
Promocija plus6/10/20191.93.310.9
Promocija plus5/21/201969.2
Promocija plus5/9/20193.52.87.53.28.4
Promocija plus4/22/20193.53.35.23.78.9
Promocija plus4/8/20194.45.74.25.9
Promocija plus3/22/20193.96.345.3
Promocija plus3/7/20194.24.94.4
Promocija plus2/7/20194.53.94.54.24.4
Promocija plus1/10/20194.54.17.96.2
Promocija plus12/7/20184.28.95.3
2x1 komunikacije4/25/20181.415.711.7
2x1 komunikacije4/25/201812.211.4
Promocija plus2/3/201811.96.610.1
IPSOS PULS1/18/201815126

Most municipalities where HDZ has worst results are either municipalities with sizeable Serb minority or in Istria county.

However, it is interesting to notice that even though HDZ recorded low numbers, SDP was not strong in those areas. SDSS (Independent Democratic Serb Party) won four out of five of them. Amsterdam Coalition took the remaining fifth spot – in Istria.

Municipalities with most votes for HDZ (%)

There is no table associated with this shortcode.

HDZ can brag with winning the 67.18% of votes in Unešić – a percentage to which SDP could not come even close in its strongholds. All top 5 places for HDZ are above the 60% mark.

Unsurprisingly, SDP recorded low numbers in those municipalities. From 0.17% in Unešić to 8.81% in Ljubeščica.

Municipalities with least votes for SDP (%)

There is no table associated with this shortcode.

Expectedly, SDP is weak in more rural and conservative parts of Croatia. HDZ beats it in three of the five municipalities where SDP recorded the lowest percentage of votes. The remaining two are from the places with a sizeable Serb minority with SDSS winning in both.

Municipalities with most votes for SDP (%)

There is no table associated with this shortcode.

SDP’s highest percentage share is shy of 50%, and it is at 47.70% – almost 20 pp below HDZ’s score. All the top five places are between 47.70% and 35.82% – meaning that SDP’s domination in those areas is weaker than the command enjoyed by HDZ in its strongholds.

HDZ 2019 EU election results – mapped

HDZ's 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes
HDZ’s 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes

SDP 2019 EU election results – mapped

SDP's 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes
SDP’s 2019 EU election results mapped, percentage of votes

Side-by-side comparison of HDZ vs. SDP election results

Interactively explore the map of Croatia. Compare the share of votes won by HDZ and SDP. Just drag the slider left or right and have fun.

[twenty20 img1=”170″ img2=”171″ offset=”0.5″ before=”HDZ” after=”SDP”]

The relative strength of HDZ vs. SDP on the same map

HDZ vs. SDP's 2019 EU election results mapped, relative percentage of votes
HDZ vs. SDP’s 2019 EU election results mapped, the relative percentage of votes