{"id":3644,"date":"2022-11-05T17:39:22","date_gmt":"2022-11-05T16:39:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/viborc.com\/?p=3644"},"modified":"2022-11-08T16:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-11-08T15:23:18","slug":"sto-su-americki-midterms-izbori-i-tko-ce-pobijediti-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/viborc.com\/hr\/sto-su-americki-midterms-izbori-i-tko-ce-pobijediti-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0160to su ameri\u010dki midterms izbori i tko \u0107e pobijediti 2022.?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ameri\u010dki izbori su najve\u0107e uprizorenje demokracije u toj dr\u017eavi. Od predsjedni\u010dkih, koji se odr\u017eavaju svake 4 godine, do onih za Kongres koji se odr\u017eavaju svake dvije godine, svojim zna\u010dajem i na \u0161iru, globalnu politiku, privla\u010de \u0161iru pozornost. Sada su pred nama ameri\u010dki midterms izbori u 2022. godini. Poznati su i pod hrvatskim pojmom – me\u0111uizbori.<\/p>\n

Izbori za Kongres se odr\u017eavaju svake dvije godine \u0161to zna\u010di da se jednom poklope s izborima za predsjednika, a drugi put, kao \u0161to je slu\u010daj u 2022. godini, se nalaze otprilike na pola mandata aktualnog predsjednika. S obzirom na to \u2013 popularno ih nazivaju midterms.<\/p>\n

Ovogodi\u0161nji ameri\u010dki midterms izbori \u0107e se odr\u017eati u utorak, 8. 11. 2022. godine<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

DOPUNA #1 – Ovdje mo\u017eete pratiti glasovanje i rezultate ameri\u010dkih midetrms (me\u0111uizbora) 2022.<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

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Midterms izbori – koga, kada i kako biraju Amerikanci<\/h2>\n

Sam ameri\u010dki Kongres se sastoji od dva dijela (doma).<\/p>\n

To su House of the Representatives<\/strong> (Zastupni\u010dki ili predstavni\u010dki dom) i Senate<\/strong> (Senat).<\/p>\n

U cjelini, Kongres predstavlja glavno federalno zakonodavno tijelo. Vrlo pojednostavljeno gledano – Predstavni\u010dki dom odlu\u010duje o kojim se zakonima raspravlja, dok Senat pojedine zakone odobrava ili blokira. Senat tako\u0111er i potvr\u0111uje imenovanja koja predsjednik postavlja, a mo\u017ee pokretati i istrage i postupke protiv njega.<\/p>\n

Svaka ameri\u010dka savezna dr\u017eava, bez obzira na svoju veli\u010dinu i broj stanovnika ima dva predstavnika u Senatu \u0161to ukupan broj postavlja na Senatu \u010dini 100. Odluke se donose ve\u0107inom glasova (u nekim slu\u010dajevima je potrebna i dvotre\u0107inska ve\u0107ina). U slu\u010daju izjedna\u010denog broja glasova (50:50) \u0161to je nerijetko slu\u010daj u prvoj polovici mandata predsjednika Joea Bidena<\/strong>, odlu\u010duju\u0107i glas daje potpredsjednica SAD-a, Kamala Harris<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Senatori se biraju na mandate koji traju \u0161est godina, dok se zastupnici u Predstavni\u010dkom domu biraju na kra\u0107e, dvogodi\u0161nje mandate. Na taj se na\u010din svake 2 godine biraju svi \u010dlanovi Predstavni\u010dkog doma i oko tre\u0107ine \u010dlanova Senata.<\/p>\n

Usporedno s ovim, pojedine savezne dr\u017eave imaju i izbore za lokalne \u010delnike pa \u010dak i za guvernere.<\/p>\n

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Trenutno stanje u Kongresu (2022)<\/h2>\n

Od po\u010detka predsjedni\u010dkog mandata aktualnog predsjednika Bidena, demokrati su imali kontrolu nad oba doma Kongresa.<\/p>\n

Senat<\/h3>\n

U Senatu je ta podjela bila 50:50.<\/p>\n

Zapravo, preciznije bi bilo re\u0107i da je bila 48 demokrata<\/strong>, 2 senatora koji su neovisni<\/strong> (Angus King<\/strong> i Bernie Sanders<\/strong>), ali su dijelom demokratskog tijela i 50 republikanaca<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

S obzirom na ovakvu podjelu, potpredsjednica Harris je \u010desto bila presudni glas u korist demokrata.<\/p>\n

Predstavni\u010dki dom<\/h3>\n

U predstavni\u010dkom domu ukupno ima 435 \u010dlanova s pravom glasa i njih 6 bez prava glasa.<\/p>\n

Ovih \u0161est su predstavnici teritorija koje kontrolira SAD, poput Guama, Puerta Rica i Washingtona (D.C.). Za ve\u0107inu u Predstavni\u010dkom domu, potrebno je imati 218 glasova.<\/p>\n

Trenutno demokrati imaju 220 mjesta, republikanci 212, a tri su mjesta upra\u017enjena.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tri upra\u017enjena mjesta su pripadala demokratskim zastupnicima Cristu<\/strong> i Deutchu<\/strong> (obojica su odstupili s du\u017enosti) dok je jedno republikansko mjesto ostalo upra\u017enjeno smr\u0107u zastupnice Jackie Walorski<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

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Tko \u0107e pobijediti na midtermsima 2022.?<\/h2>\n

Kako je ranije spomenuto, demokrati su imali ve\u0107inu u oba doma kongresa \u0161to je predsjedniku Bidenu zna\u010dajno olak\u0161alo provo\u0111enje njegove politike. Unato\u010d tome, nerijetko je imao oporbu i u redovima vlastite stranke, osobito od onog radikalnijeg lijevog krila koje je bilo nezadovoljno dubinom ili intenzitetom promjena.<\/p>\n

Trenutne prognoze upu\u0107uju na to kako bi demokrati mogli tijesno zadr\u017eati kontrolo nad Senatom, ali vrlo vjerojatno izgubiti onu nad Predstavni\u010dkim domom.<\/p>\n

\u0160to se ti\u010de samog Predstavni\u010dkog doma, ve\u0107ina mjesta je ve\u0107 nekako u sigurnim rukama bilo jedne, bilo druge stranke.<\/p>\n

Nekih 30-ak su \u201eu igri\u201c i mogli bi pripasti i jednima i drugima.<\/p>\n

Presudne \u0107e biti utrke oko gradova i gradskih predgra\u0111a u saveznim dr\u017eavama kao \u0161to su Pennsylvania, Kalifornija, Sjeverna Karolina i Ohio.<\/p>\n

\u0160to se ti\u010de Senata tu su oko 4 mjesta potencijalno otvorena. Rije\u010d je o mjestima i saveznim dr\u017eavama Pennsylvannia, Nevada, Arizona i Georgija.<\/p>\n

Upravo \u0107e Georgija biti posebno zanimljiva s obzirom na njezinu ulogu na pro\u0161lim ameri\u010dkim izborima i tijesnu pobjedu demokrata.<\/p>\n

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Koje su mogu\u0107e posljedice pobjede republikanaca?<\/h2>\n

Gotovo pa tradicionalno, vladaju\u0107a stranka (u smislu one koja je dala predsjednika) na midterms izborima gubi dio ili cijelu kontrolu vlasti. Midtermsi su i svojevrsna ocjena gra\u0111ana SAD-a zadovoljstvom rada predsjednika i administracije.<\/p>\n

I tu nastaju problemi za predsjednika Bidena. Prema nizu istra\u017eivanja javnog mijenja koje ocjenjuje zadovoljstvo radom predsjednika, podr\u0161ka njegovom radu je ni\u017ea od 50% jo\u0161 od kolovoza.<\/p>\n

Kolovoza 2021. godine! Dakle, nekih 15 mjeseci.<\/p>\n

\"Prikaz<\/a>
Prikaz postotka podr\u0161ke i izostanka podr\u0161ke radu predsjednika Bidena.
Izvor: fivethrityeight.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ta se potpora po\u010dela lagano pobolj\u0161avati od sredine ljeta ove godine, ali i dalje je na razinama od oko 42,1 %. U usporedbi s predsjednikom Donaldom Trumpom<\/strong>, gotovo su izjedna\u010deni u istom trenutku u mandatu. Trumpa je u ovo vrijeme podr\u017eavalo tek neznatno manje, 41,9 % gra\u0111ana.<\/p>\n

\"Usporedni<\/a>
Usporedni prikaz odobravanja rada predsjednika Bidena i Trumpa u istom trenutku. Izvor: fivethrityeight.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Osvoje li republikanci kontrolu nad bilo kojim domom Kongresa, mo\u0107i \u0107e u\u010dinkovito zaustaviti provednu Bidenove politike \u2013 uklju\u010duju\u0107i i ga\u0161enje kongresne istrage vezane uz napada na US Capitol 6. 1. 2021. kojeg su Trumpovi podra\u017eavatelji nasilno poku\u0161ali zauzeti. Osim toga, republikanci \u0107e mo\u017eda sami pokrenuti istrage vezane uz poslove koje je Bidenov sin, Hunter Biden<\/strong>, imao u odnosima prema Kini ili postavljati te\u0161ka pitanja vezana uz ameri\u010dko povla\u010denje iz Afganistana.<\/p>\n

Zadr\u017ee li pak demokrati vlast, to \u0107e olak\u0161ati Bidenove politike vezane uz imigraciju, klimatske promjene, kontrolu oru\u017eja i ostale teme poput prava na poba\u010daj i \u0161ire pokrivenosti univerzalnom zdravstvenom za\u0161titom.<\/p>\n

Pobjeda republikanaca, u bilo kojem doku Kongresa, efektivno bi zaustavila provedbu ovih politika.<\/p>\n

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Ukrajina i odnosi republikanca<\/h3>\n

A tu je i Ukrajina.<\/p>\n

Zemlja koja je do sada u\u017eivala zna\u010dajnu ameri\u010dku pomo\u0107 u svojoj borbi protiv ruskog agresora.<\/p>\n

Iako na\u010delno i demokrati i republikanci Ukrajinu podr\u017eavaju, dio republikanskih predstavnika je istaknuo kako \u0107e pitanje pomo\u0107i biti dodatno razmatrano dok je radikalniji dio Republikanske stranke (poput predstavnice Marjorie Taylor Green<\/strong>, MTG) otvoreno po\u010deo zastupati stav ameri\u010dke uskrate pomo\u0107i Ukrajini.<\/p>\n

Kako ovo oblikuje predsjedni\u010dke izbore 2024. godine?<\/h2>\n

Gotovo je izvjesno kako \u0107e Bidenov prethodnik, Trump, tijekom studenog objaviti svoju kandidaturu za ameri\u010dke predsjedni\u010dke izbore 2024. godine.<\/p>\n

To je element koji daje dodatnu zanimljivost ovoj utrci i midtermsima.<\/p>\n

Naime, mogu poslu\u017eiti i kao svojevrsni pokazatelj popularnosti kandidata koje je Trump podr\u017eao. Polu\u010de li oni dobar rezultat, to \u0107e dodatno ohrabriti Trumpa i njegove pristalice. Ako se rezultat \u201enjegovih\u201c kandidata poka\u017ee bitno lo\u0161ijim, nije nemogu\u0107e zamisliti scenarij u kojem Trump objavu svoje kandidature za predsjednika 2024. godine pomakne na neki kasniji termin.<\/p>\n

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Gdje pratiti rezultate ameri\u010dkih midterms izbora 2022. godine?<\/h2>\n

Na pravom ste mjestu!<\/p>\n

Tijekom 8. 11. 2022. \u0107emo izravno pratiti doga\u0111aje vezane uz ameri\u010dke izbore 2022. godine. Posebno \u0107emo ih pratiti od ve\u010dernjih sati (po na\u0161em vremenu) kako se budu otvarala ameri\u010dka birali\u0161te te kroz cijelu no\u0107 prate\u0107i rezultate u stvarnom vremenu i donose\u0107i pregled mogu\u0107eg sastava oba doma Kongresa kao i pojedinih guvernerskih utrka.<\/p>\n

Posjetite viborc.com\/hr<\/a> i pratite rezultate ameri\u010dkih izbora 2022. godine u realnom vremenu.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A ovdje mo\u017eete vidjeti kako je to izgledalo kada smo pratili dramati\u010dne ameri\u010dke predsjedni\u010dke izbore 2020. godine<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amerikanci \u0107e 8. 11. 2022. iza\u0107i na tzv. midterms izbore na kojima \u0107e birati predstavnike za sva mjesta u Predstavni\u010dkom domu i oko tre\u0107ine mjesta u Senatu. Za\u0161tu su midterms izbori va\u017eni i tko bi mogao pobijediti – saznajte u ovom \u010dlanku.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1083,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[158],"tags":[295,180,179,157,30,185,300,298,296,299,181,183,297],"class_list":["post-3644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-izbori-politika","tag-americki-izbori","tag-demokrati","tag-donald-trump","tag-feat1-hr-3","tag-izbori","tag-joe-biden-hr","tag-kamala-harris-hr","tag-kongress","tag-midterms","tag-predstavnicki-dom","tag-republikanci","tag-sad","tag-senat"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0160to su ameri\u010dki midterms izbori i tko \u0107e pobijediti 2022.? • viborc.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ameri\u010dki midterms izbori 2022. godine: Tko \u0107e osvojiti Senat, a tko Predstavni\u010dki dom Kongresa i za\u0161to su midtermsi va\u017eni. 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